Thursday, February 08, 2018

The world on the brink

"In the last year, the world has gotten closer — much too close — to the brink of a significant conflict," wrote Munich Security Conference (MSC) Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger, who has served as Germany's former ambassador to the US and UK.

Ischinger pointed to ever-louder saber rattling between the US and North Korea, the growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and ongoing tensions between Russia and NATO in Europe.

Under Trump, the US has been favoring bilateral ties that serves its own interests, according to the report's assessment. That attitude goes hand-in-hand with the White House's lack of interest in advancing diplomacy. The budget at the US State Department has been mercilessly slashed since Trump came into office while defense spending has increased significantly.

"The world's most powerful state has begun to sabotage the order it created," the report said, quoting John Ikenberry, a US foreign policy expert at Princeton University.

If EU member states and Norway would abide by NATO's so-called "2-percent rule" and invest 2 percent of their GDP in defense, it would translate into a spending increase of nearly 50 percent, taking total expenditures up to roughly $386 billion (€314 billion).

The report noted that climate change should continue to be a major factor when states consider security risks. The report pointed out that 2017, which was one of the hottest years ever recorded was marked by catastrophic storms, droughts and floodsClimate change's impact on international relations will also go beyond natural disasters. "While climate change will affect economic, security and political systems all over the world, it will mainly act as a 'threat multiplier' in those states with limited capacities to deal with it," the report said. Notably, low-income countries will be hit hardest. Climate disasters, especially droughts, will continue to have a knock-on effect, especially in parts of Asia and Africa, where it has the potential to fuel conflict and, consequently, displacement.


No comments: